Experience the heartbeat of democracy in Latin America through the eyes of Dr. Cynthia McClintock, a distinguished expert whose insights illuminate the region's ongoing struggle between authoritarian rule and the quest for freedom. In this episode, we discuss the complex political tapestry of Latin America, where the aspirations of the people are often caught in a tug-of-war with the ambitions of their leaders. From the democratic resilience seen in Brazil and Colombia to the concerning authoritarian trends in El Salvador and Venezuela, our conversation spans the spectrum of governance in this vibrant and strategically pivotal region.
We untangle the geopolitical web of interests that make Latin America more than just a neighbor to the United States, but a partner whose fate resonates on the world stage. We scrutinize the strategic significance of the region's abundant resources, delve into the intricate implications of foreign relationships, and examine the United States' role in nurturing democratic institutions amid growing influence from global powers like China and Russia. The discussion probes the delicate dance of international relations and environmental stewardship, as these nations grapple with the dual challenges of development and democratic governance.
Finally, we confront the specter of polarization and democratic backsliding that casts a shadow across Latin American politics. Analyzing the rise of political figures who capitalize on the demands for stability, we reveal the perils of compromised judicial systems and the potential for authoritarian entrenchment. Yet, in the face of such adversity, we find pockets of hope and resilience, as exemplified by Chile's vibrant electoral scene and Cuba's tenacious civic movements. This is an essential exploration for anyone invested in the future of democracy and the global struggle for human rights and accountable governance.
Recommended:
Electoral Rules and Democracy in Latin America - Cynthia McClintock
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Email: deepdivewithshawn@gmail.com
**Artwork: Dovi Design
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Experience the heartbeat of democracy in Latin America through the eyes of Dr. Cynthia McClintock, a distinguished expert whose insights illuminate the region's ongoing struggle between authoritarian rule and the quest for freedom. In this episode, we discuss the complex political tapestry of Latin America, where the aspirations of the people are often caught in a tug-of-war with the ambitions of their leaders. From the democratic resilience seen in Brazil and Colombia to the concerning authoritarian trends in El Salvador and Venezuela, our conversation spans the spectrum of governance in this vibrant and strategically pivotal region.
We untangle the geopolitical web of interests that make Latin America more than just a neighbor to the United States, but a partner whose fate resonates on the world stage. We scrutinize the strategic significance of the region's abundant resources, delve into the intricate implications of foreign relationships, and examine the United States' role in nurturing democratic institutions amid growing influence from global powers like China and Russia. The discussion probes the delicate dance of international relations and environmental stewardship, as these nations grapple with the dual challenges of development and democratic governance.
Finally, we confront the specter of polarization and democratic backsliding that casts a shadow across Latin American politics. Analyzing the rise of political figures who capitalize on the demands for stability, we reveal the perils of compromised judicial systems and the potential for authoritarian entrenchment. Yet, in the face of such adversity, we find pockets of hope and resilience, as exemplified by Chile's vibrant electoral scene and Cuba's tenacious civic movements. This is an essential exploration for anyone invested in the future of democracy and the global struggle for human rights and accountable governance.
Recommended:
Electoral Rules and Democracy in Latin America - Cynthia McClintock
-------------------------
Follow Deep Dive:
Instagram
Post.news
YouTube
Email: deepdivewithshawn@gmail.com
**Artwork: Dovi Design
**Music: Joystock
So climate change definitely matters, but bad governance matters too, and the drug war. The drug war matters a lot also, and this is one of the tragedies of the last you know what the lack of responsibility that is taken for the United States for the problems that these you know, the capacity for bad guys to make money that corrupts these governments. It's something that's just of crucial importance. And obviously the violence has also been a major factor in immigration.
Shawn:Welcome to Deep Dive with me, s C Fettig. The past few years have seen both challenges and opportunities for democracy in Latin America, with worrying authoritarian trends in some countries I'm thinking about El Salvador, mexico, peru, venezuela, argentina alongside signs of resilience and popular demands for better governance in others and here I'm thinking about Brazil, colombia, guatemala, even Cuba. Latin America has long been a battleground between democratic aspirations and authoritarian tendencies. From the military dictatorships of the Cold War era to the more recent rise of populist strongmen, the region has struggled to consolidate and maintain stable democratic institutions. Yet at the same time, latin America has also been a source of inspiration, with grassroots movements, civil society organizations has also been a source of inspiration, with grassroots movements, civil society organizations and committed citizens fighting tirelessly to defend human rights, freedom of expression and the rule of law.
Shawn:The state of democracy in this region has profound implications, not just for Latin America itself but for the entire world, and the stakes are pretty high. Despite the fact that I'd be willing to bet, most of you don't really know or maybe even care about what's happening in Chile or Colombia or Cuba or Argentina or Ecuador or El Salvador, etc. You get the point, but Latin America is one of the most populous and economically dynamic regions in the world, comprising over 600 million people with a combined GDP of over $5 trillion. Latin America is simply too important to ignore, and the choices that Latin American countries make, whether to strengthen their democracies or slide into authoritarianism, will have profound ripple effects across the globe. For the United States in particular, what happens in Latin America is of vital strategic importance. Our geographic proximity, close economic ties and shared history and culture mean that instability and conflict and democratic backsliding in the region inevitably impact our own security and prosperity. On the flip side, a Latin America that's democratic, prosperous and well-governed is an invaluable partner in addressing regional and global challenges, and considering that, it's confusing and alarming that US policymakers have treated Latin America as an afterthought, taking our relationships in the region for granted while focusing attention and resources elsewhere, and I think this could prove to be a grave mistake. As we've seen in recent years, bad actors like China and Russia are actively working to expand their influence in Latin America, often at the expense of democracy and human rights, and if the US fails to engage, we risk ceding ground to authoritarian powers and losing the trust and goodwill of our southern neighbors. And in that context, why aren't we paying more attention?
Shawn:Today I'm talking to Dr Cynthia McClintock, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. She's a leading expert on Latin American politics and US-Latin America relations. We discuss the state of democracy in key countries like Brazil, mexico, colombia, el Salvador, cuba, argentina, ecuador and more, the complex social, economic and political factors driving and why it's in our own best interest to do so. All right, if you like this episode or any episode, please give it a like on your favorite podcast platform and or subscribe to the podcast on YouTube. And, as always, if you have any thoughts, please give it a like on your favorite podcast platform and or subscribe to the podcast on YouTube. And, as always, if you have any thoughts, questions or comments, please feel free to email me at deepdivewithshawn at gmailcom. Let's do a deep dive, dr McClintock. Thanks for being here. How are you?
Dr. McClintock:I'm just fine, thank you. How are you?
Shawn:I'm well as well, thank you.
Shawn:We're here to talk about Latin America, and I think that we have a tendency to think about Latin America as a monolith, but I think that in doing so, we're missing some real nuance across many spectrums history, cuisine, economy and, for the purpose of our conversation today, governance and governing style, and I think Central and South America are interesting studies in democracy versus authoritarianism, something we've spent a lot of time on Deep Dive talking about.
Shawn:The region has experienced democratic backsliding in some countries and some real advancements in democracy in others, and I want to talk about some of these. But before we jump into some specifics, I think that we should probably start by acknowledging that, while the world is experiencing democratic backsliding, when we talk about it, we tend to focus primarily on Western democracies and we pay little attention to Latin America. I do remember at the end of Bolsonaro's presidency, there was a lot of focus on Brazil, but since then, you know, there's not a lot of attention paid to some of the other countries, but interesting things are happening in the region. So I guess let's start with this. Why do you think that we don't focus more in the United States on the health of democracies in Latin America, and I guess that begs the question of why should we?
Dr. McClintock:Yeah, well, it's a great, great question and I think it has to do with, you know, unfortunately, a stereotype in the United States that you know, latin American countries it's always been the Caudillo, it's always been Fidel Castro, castro or one dictator or another. I don't think there was enough appreciation of the democratic advances that were made in the wake of the Cold War and of the desires for democracy of so many Latin Americans. And, as you were suggesting, there's a lot of variation in the region and you know, I think if you ask Americans, yeah, costa Rica, yeah, but they sort of think Latin America and the stereotype is the Codilla rather than some of the democratic stars like Costa Rica, uruguay.
Shawn:So this is something that I haven't given a lot of thought to and I've not heard a lot of conversation or attention paid to, but I do think there's a stratification of how we think about power players in the world, and I think Latin America is dismissed out of hand as not being a power player and, as a result, I wonder if we assume that what's happening in Central and South America although this is probably not true in the 40s, 50s and 60s but we assume now that it really doesn't have much of an impact on us or the rest of the world.
Dr. McClintock:Yes, and once again I agree. But I also you know, I think, along with you would say this it's very unfortunate and it's not really the case right. Because Latin America is, for starters, it could easily be the bread basket of the world. There is a lot of fertile land there, but then also the very complicated question of development of that land and what that means for the environment and for climate change. Environment and for climate change.
Dr. McClintock:Latin America is also the home of countries with huge oil reserves, raising the question once again of trade-offs with climate change. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Brazil has recently climbed into being one of the major oil producers in the world. At the same time that Latin America could be an area for tremendous wind and solar and other clean energy developments, if we put our mind to it. It could be great for that. It's also a key lithium, which is a key mineral for electric batteries, electric vehicles. It's Argentina, chile, bolivia. These are the countries. So Latin America has tremendous importance for its natural resources, but also tremendous implications for how those are developed, for climate change going forward, and then, of course, the implications, too, for immigration, because this country is so near to the United States, obviously, the attractiveness of the poor farmer hit by hurricanes due to climate change, and they want to get somewhere else and we're close by. So it's tremendously important for the question of sustainable immigration levels that Latin Americans don't all say, hey, we're going to be, climate change is coming, we better head north.
Dr. McClintock:And then there's the whole issue. Well, it's a complicated question, but Latin America is important and, of course, as you were referring to, I mean, in times of warfare, proximity canals, all of these come to heightened attention. Obviously, cuba 90 miles, I mean this was, as we all know, closest to World War III that we ever got. And one of the reasons why it's important to pay attention to democracy versus authoritarianism is that countries that become more authoritarian. You know, often the United States imposes sanctions and sanctioned countries often then say, hey, let's see what China will give us, let's see what Russia will give us, and we're in this situation where, you know, the sanctioned country reaches out to alternative powers and they may do that before they're sanctioned as well, because they see that's where their bread is buttered. So there's a lot of important issues, even though, you know, obviously there's no country in Latin America that rivals the power of China.
Shawn:So you've brought up a few things that I think are particularly interesting, and before we dig into some of the differences across some of these countries, I think it's important to acknowledge that in the United States, our engagement, at least at the social level, in thinking about Latin America, particularly Central and South America, really has to do with immigration, and that's cast in a negative context.
Shawn:We also think about that as primarily people escaping either poor economic circumstances or authoritarian regimes, and on the West Coast that's people escaping essentially Venezuela, and I think that's where we stop. But you bring up climate change as being a significant factor, which is interesting because that seems to have a longer reach and longer, greater and longer implication for immigration into the United States than does, perhaps, governance. But at the same time and this is something else that you brought up it seems that the United States is not investing in Latin America in the same way that we have in the past. Not to say that we invested or intervened in past was a net good or net positive, have potential negative implications, and I guess the question here is do you see this as having potential disastrous impacts for the United States in the future?
Dr. McClintock:Very, very important questions, very important questions and a lot, you know a lot, there. Governance repression tends to be, you know, associated also with bad economic results. I mean, if you just take a look at Cuba, venezuela in recent years, so a lot of these things, you know, go together and lead people to want to emigrate, you know so. Climate change definitely matters, but bad governance matters too. And the drug war the drug war matters a lot also, and this is one of the tragedies of the last. You know what I would see as the lost drug war that was lost quite a ways back of responsibility that is taken for the United States for the problems that these you know, the capacity for bad guys to make money that corrupts these governments, it's something that's just of crucial importance. And obviously the violence has also been a major factor in immigration. The situation about investment, and it's very complicated, right, it's fascinating If you look at a map of the world over the last sort of 50 years where US economic aid has gone, latin America gets a tiny fraction in comparison to Afghanistan, iraq, the Middle East, comparison to Afghanistan, iraq, the Middle East. Even during the Cold War there was relatively low levels of economic aid compared to other regions. Investment's a little bit more complicated and there was a period there where, just as you said, chinese investment was very high Belt and Road Initiative and now the last year or two that's trailed off because of China's economic problems COVID and the like. Also a tendency by China, sort of like the United States tended to do more 40 or 50 years ago to privilege investments that are going to help China but maybe not the Latin American country. So there's been a little bit more problems with some of these Chinese investments For this part of the US.
Dr. McClintock:You're very familiar with the nearshoring concept, the front-end shoring concept, and the US is turning away from trade with China has definitely helped Mexico, in particular Mexico and the Central American countries less so South America. There's quite a variation because the South American countries have these close trade ties with China where they export their raw materials to China, whereas Mexico and Central America is much more competing with China to sell manufacturers to the US. So investment actually in Mexico has been good you know US in the last couple of years and it's been sort of trending up a little bit too for South America. But still in my view it's not enough.
Dr. McClintock:It would be great if we could really put the nose to the grindstone and work hard on trying to encourage investments that are socially responsible, environmentally responsible. I mean, that's a lot to ask and obviously you know the US system is a capitalist system and the government doesn't boss around companies, but it would be great if we could do more. Again, one problem has tended to be that presidents are distracted by Iraq, afghanistan, ukraine and don't, in my view, provide the sort of incentives and encouragement for aid and investment to Latin America that would have been really helpful for building these economies and building more just societies. That would have reduced the migrant flows.
Shawn:So you've mentioned some of the factors that have some interplay with democratic backsliding or even, potentially, the rise of authoritarianism or the resilience of authoritarianism in some of these countries. So you've mentioned things like drug wars and you've mentioned the impact of the economy or a degrading economy. But let's put a finer point on it. What are some of the major factors that typically drive democratic backsliding in countries like El Salvador, mexico, peru, potentially Ecuador?
Dr. McClintock:I would say that a lot of it has to do with the gravity of the challenges that these countries are facing, which means that it's difficult for incumbent presidents to get high marks for how they're dealing with the challenges and, as a result, the more leftist center, rightist center, the relatively more moderate Latin American governments of the 1990s, the 2000s, the center didn't hold and there's now tremendous polarization.
Dr. McClintock:Of course, some of this is just what's happened in the US too. I mean, all of this is exacerbated by social media, but quite a few countries over the last five, six years now have elected presidents to the left, but at the same time, the parties and candidates to the rights were often the runner-up or did well or even better in the legislatures, leading to problems that we're very familiar with executive legislative gridlock, and then, if you can't get anything done, everybody gets mad right and then you're in an even worse situation. So I think that has a lot to do with it. And again, this obviously wasn't something that was intended really, but the rise of you know, Donald Trump, you know in the United States, his presidency, the prospects of a possibility of a return of Donald Trump, this definitely galvanized a authoritarian right in Latin America.
Dr. McClintock:It wasn't that there was never an authoritarian right but it had really weakened tremendously in the 90s and early 2000s. And you know you mentioned Bolsonaro. He was, of course, a prime example, but there are numerous examples throughout the region of rightists who sort of say hey, donald Trump, yeah, let's give that a try. And obviously that's made it much, much harder to achieve good governance in a lot of these countries.
Dr. McClintock:I don't personally think that, as I look at the United States today and Latin America today, that it's authoritarian tendencies among the Latin American people quite so much as we would like to respect human rights. But if it's a question of some human rights violations versus we can walk down the street at night, we can keep our shop open without getting extorted one Latin American after another says, okay, the results, we just have to be safe, we have to be able to have our business and we don't really like these human rights violations. But if that's the price, we'll pay it in order to have some security. I think the problems are just so grave with security, especially you mentioned Ecuador, central American countries, mexico, where the drug war rages to this day.
Shawn:This is particularly interesting to me because I've been thinking a lot about the vulnerability in the United States to potential democratic backsliding with our current elections.
Shawn:Let's just put a name on it with Trump and his rhetoric, and I think what we name on it with Trump and his rhetoric and I think what we, to our detriment, make the mistake of often doing is thinking that supporters of people like Donald Trump or Bukele in El Salvador, or even Obrador AMLO in Mexico, that the supporters of them are in pursuit of authoritarian governance, is a mistake, that what they're actually in pursuit of, as you mentioned, is some type of security.
Shawn:So in El Salvador, gang wars and violence and gun deaths led to extreme popular support for Bukele and his authoritarian tendencies, which are to essentially do away with the rule of law, extrajudicial executions and imprisonment. So there's this relationship between authoritarians and supporters. It's a mistake for us to think that the population is in pursuit of authoritarianism as much as they are in pursuit of some type of security or safety or economic benefit, etc. What this means is that these people tend to have huge amounts of support. So Donald Trump not only does he have a base of support, it's a fervent base of support, and Bukele does in El Salvador, which is somewhat frightening, because what that means is there's a potential for a long investment in some type of authoritarianism which erodes, obviously, democratic institutions, and so I guess I'm wondering if you've given thought to what this might mean for places like Ecuador, El Salvador, potentially even Mexico, and then the spillover effects that it might have for other, maybe more resilient democratic regimes in the region.
Dr. McClintock:Yeah, I agree. I worry a great deal too. I think you hit the nail on the head that Bukele in the short term, his support comes from having dramatically improved security in the country, with Salvadorians saying, well, no, if we have to violate human rights for that, so be it, but no, I couldn't agree more. He's already manipulated the judicial institutions to enable him to have a second consecutive term. I think the odds that he's going to go for a third are 99.9. This is the pattern. So one day is going to be what have you done for me lately? And he's going to say I don't care, I'm a rent. So we saw this pattern most recently with Hugo Chavez. Of course, that's a very interesting example, because Hugo Chavez was very popular for many years. He did a lot to improve living conditions, especially for poor Venezuelans. But as he's going for that third term, venezuelans basically said no, come on. Bolivia was the same thing yeah, give me a break, come on. We really don't want a president for life. And both Venezuela and Bolivia. The president said well, we really don't care what people think, we're going anyway. And at that point it can often be too late, because the authoritarian president has manipulated the judicial institution so much If he wants dissolve the legislature. So no, I agree, it's a very dangerous pattern. People say, hey, we've had enough, this really has gone too far, and by that time the authoritarian leader has consolidated a lot of power. So it's very dangerous, it's very difficult, I mean.
Dr. McClintock:I think part of the good news is that there is pushback in a lot of countries too. So you raise the case of Mexico and AMLO Mexico the tradition of six years and you're out is so strong compared to the other countries that he couldn't do it and he had to have one of his protégés be the candidate. So I think that's important. He's obviously pressed a lot to try to control the electoral machinery, but there's also been big, big pushback. So we're still seeing how all of that's going to play out in the Mexican election this summer. But again, the good news is this pushback, dito Guatemala, which is one of the successes of during the Biden administration, where the corrupt sort of old regime was trying as hard as it possibly could to prevent the inauguration of a reformer, anti-corruption candidate, bernardo Arevalo, and get a lot of pushback, support from the Biden administration and Arevalo was indeed inaugurated. But these are tough battles and if Donald Trump were president, the odds that the United States would support the forces pushing for democracy are low, in my view.
Shawn:I wonder if it's even more dire than that in that, you know, I am aware, for better or worse, of the influence that the United States has on our neighbors, just the immense amount of, maybe, power that we have and history that we have a large country of democracy and that has played out and influenced, especially when it comes to our neighbors, central and South America. And I wonder if it's worse than just our ability to intervene for ill or not, as much as it is just our commitment to democracy and if that were to falter, the message that that sends to Latin America.
Dr. McClintock:I agree. I agree you know the United States culturally. I mean the ties that we have with Latin America are extremely strong. I mean one example I was just in Peru over our spring break a couple of weeks ago and I was surprised it was the Sunday night of the Oscars and everybody's watching the Oscars. Really, this is soccer and the intermeshes there, I mean all of the family ties. Now, I mean immigration has led to I mean, latin Americans don't go, emigrate to China, right, the country that they know and they hear about is the United States and obviously people want to come here. They like it, right, and so there's tremendous ties. And, yes, I think the impact of the first Donald Trump presidency in the sense of, okay, if Americans think this is a good way to go, what does that mean? It's got crucial significance for the region.
Shawn:I want to talk a little bit about Mexico, because it's a massive influence in the region as well, and you mentioned some of the potential authoritarian tendencies that AMLO brings to the country. It's not simply his desire to kind of extend his presidency. He's done a handful of things that are anti-democratic. He's made moves to undermine the independence of electoral authority. He's targeted journalists and protesters, and I wonder if there's a bit of a Trojan horse in Mexico in that we perhaps I don't know if I'm talking about the United States government as much as I am talking about the United States populace take Mexico for granted as being a relatively stable democracy, which is kind of fascinating if you really think about what we know about Mexico, and particularly you know the violence that's happening, the human trafficking that's happening in some regions in Mexico, the influence of gangs and cartels in some regions in Mexico. But we really do take for granted that it's a relatively stable democracy. I vacation there and don't think twice about it, right.
Dr. McClintock:Right.
Shawn:But I do wonder how serious or how fragile Mexican democracy is when you start to consider some of these things that I've mentioned, and then you have a president in the mold of AMLO.
Dr. McClintock:It's a very good question and I think it's really important that the United States not take for granted that any of the Latin American countries is going to be totally resilient. I mean, again, we've seen that in the United States with Donald Trump, right. I mean, who would have thought that January 6th would have happened in the United States, right? And the fact that it's Bolsonaro who's facing more serious criminal indictments for that than Donald Trump. So it can happen everywhere. And, as we've talked about a little bit before the problems of a true authoritarian government, when it's hard to imagine the precise scenario.
Dr. McClintock:As you probably know, claudia Scheinbaum is the candidate who's AMLO's protege, who leads overwhelmingly in the opinion polls and I think odds on will win.
Dr. McClintock:I don't think anybody knows the question right now of how her relationship with AMLO will evolve if she's president, but there can certainly be nervousness about how much he would try to continue to govern and AMLO has a long record of dubious commitment to electoral integrity and democracy and he's certainly worried the know, worried the vast majority of the democratically inclined people you know in Mexico with the abuses that you mentioned.
Dr. McClintock:So it is worrisome. I don't think we should exaggerate it. I'm you know, as I've looked at Claudia Scheinbaum's profile and there is a history in Latin America of the protégés not doing what their mentors would like. But, that said, in an environment with the election of Donald Trump, there are going to be elections in a lot of the other Latin American countries, as I mentioned, that were leftist-selected previous rounds. Probably more likely, because there's so much anti-incumbent feeling and there's so many problems getting things done that we're going to see rightists elected elsewhere and this could lead to could be a very, very grim scenario of leaders with very authoritarian proclivities coming to power over the next couple of years.
Shawn:Which countries stick out to you? Do you consider places like Ecuador and potentially Mexico?
Dr. McClintock:Well, I think right now I would probably worry a little bit more about Colombia. So, leftist president Gustavo Petro, the runner up, Hernandez, what kind of direction he might take? In Chile, the runner up to Boric again on the left, the runner up was a far rightist cost. Chile has been very, very polarized, Again, a classic example of the more moderate governments not being perceived to not be doing enough to solve problems. Boric, pretty young and inexperienced, and the rise of a hard right.
Dr. McClintock:One factor we haven't mentioned in a lot of the South American countries is immigration from Venezuela which ironically, just like in the United States, has tended to lead to a hard right response, with quite a lot of the Chileans and the Peruvians and the Colombians saying this is too much, we can't deal with it, this sort of nationalist reaction, and that also abetting the right. So I would say Colombia, Chile, Peru, it's very, very polarized. What Peruvians want is another election tomorrow, but there's also no candidate around who looks like could bring Peruvians together around a platform that would be palatable to majorities. So it's very worrisome. It's very worrisome. It's very worrisome.
Shawn:I'm glad you bring up Colombia, because I find Colombia to be somewhat fascinating. It's often cited as a more kind of recent example of democratic resilience in the face of potential authoritarianism and also things like a history of drug wars and cartels, the FARC. But what I find fascinating about Colombia is that, given that history and it does gel with perhaps some of the things that we're seeing contemporarily in places like Ecuador and El Salvador I have mentioned this some of the stuff that's happening in certain regions in Mexico with the cartels, the gangs, the violence, the human trafficking, etc. But those things still exist. In Colombia I feel like what the government has done is essentially isolate some of these elements to more rural areas and almost abdicated their own control over it and instead focused on more centralized urban areas to maintain peace and safety, security, and I don't know if that strikes me as democratic resilience.
Dr. McClintock:I agree. I think democratic resilience and security they should go together, but not necessarily In this case with Colombia. I would say it's kind of electoral resilience. I've seen this a lot in Latin America and Peru and there's a lot of similarities among the Andean countries here, where people are very disappointed in the incumbent governments for the reasons that we've talked about, just have not solved it. Problems are intract and the presidents don't solve them. They can't get agreement with the Congress. So a lot of dismay and a lot of throw the rascals out, elect somebody different the next time, and hope. But very few people, virtually nobody's saying we don't want an election, we want the military to come in. I have not heard comments to the effect of, hey, the military could do better anywhere in the last 30 years. So that's good, right, that's good Because obviously back in the era of Colombia, with Alvaro Uribe ignoring human rights violations and egregious, egregious violations in order to achieve a little better security in the country, with some of the same trade-offs that we've been talking about. But in any case, I think what Colombia had was a norm of elections every four years and people liking that.
Dr. McClintock:But democracy in the sense that we know it, where one person one vote. I mean in Colombia in particular, there was a lot of. You know, you can, in theory, have one person one vote, but if you don't put any ballot boxes in areas of the country where the left is strong, it's not really one person one vote, and the voter turnout in Colombia was very low because that's what a lot of the authorities wanted. So, yes, Colombia had regular elections, the military was not in power, but do we really term this democracy? And, of course, this is a lot of the whole issue of democratic backsliding. Elections are important. You don't have democracy without free, fair, regular elections. But it's only the first step, right, Only the first step. And you need an inclusive election. You need information about the candidates. You need some sense of democracy. Is also rule of law right? And, by definition, what you were just what we've been talking about with respect to Mexico and Colombia? That's not rule of law.
Shawn:You also mentioned Brazil.
Shawn:You know, brazil is often cited, as you know, especially following the defeat of Bolsonaro and now his multiple indictments.
Shawn:It's kind of cited as a bright spot, perhaps even a brighter spot than the United States in its defensive democracy posture in essentially outlawing Bolsonaro from running for office for nearly a decade and aggressively pursuing indictments against him. In the same hand, we say that the United States essentially has done the same thing that by electing Joe Biden and then also holding Donald Trump accountable, potentially for some of his behavior as well that we have also. We are also not just a bright spot, but maybe have dodged a bullet. But I wonder if we're missing a point here. You know, I think that Bolsonaro and Trump are both perhaps come out of the time and the agitation within the populace and it's not necessarily limited to the man and, in that sense, the United States. I think we're experiencing this in this election right now, that there is still a potential threat to democracy in the United States and despite the fact that Bolsonaro can't run, I do wonder if they are also still vulnerable to the same, maybe authoritarian tendency. What do you think?
Dr. McClintock:What do you think? Yeah, I agree with you and I worry also. I mean, I agree too.
Dr. McClintock:I think Brazil did go further than the United States in the efforts to call Bolsonaro's protests against the other leaders that we have mentioned. Some of it is sort of the authoritarian proclivities that we've talked about, no doubt Know that there is some among some sectors. This, yeah, we want the iron fist kind of approach. We, you know, there's sort of the strongmen, but it's also and I would argue, probably even more so different groups that have been cultivated. In Bolsonaro's case, he has these close ties with evangelicals. Some of it is economic growth.
Dr. McClintock:So the issue of climate change, where, by definition, most of the leftist leaders are trying to protect the environment, but in Brazil, many of the other countries, they're quasi-illegal groups as well as large farmers who are trying hard to expand their exploitation of whether it's minerals or agriculture, deforestation. So those groups tend to be very, very strongly in favor of the Bolsonaros right because of the climate change denial. So there are definitely these specific sectors. Climate change denial so there are definitely these specific sectors. And then there's the whole kind of this huge problem, I think in so many countries in 2024 that you know, social media encouraging some demagoguery and just huge difficulties in all these countries, of when some candidate says he's going to solve this problem overnight and nobody's been able to solve it in 30 years.
Dr. McClintock:I mean like the drug war problem, right, I mean this is back to AMLO in Mexico and he hugs, not bullets, and he doesn't do anything like that, but he's sort of claiming he's going to you problem, because I think there's a tendency and this is perhaps on both polls to make these outrageous claims without people knowledgeable about the issue, saying no, it's just not going to happen overnight. These are problems that. No, and this is a little bit Bukele. You can't take the quote Bukele model and have this work in Ecuador and Peru and Colombia. But the attractiveness of it, you know.
Dr. McClintock:I mean this is a long question that we could get into, but no, again, in my view there are reasons why Bukele has been able to reduce, you know, crime that just wouldn't follow in most of the Andean countries. But that doesn't halt, you know, demagoguery on the point and it's just very hard to counter, very hard to counter in this day and age where the social media prompts get lighted and you don't have the same respect for the conventional mainstream media. So it's very challenging, very challenging.
Shawn:So in the region, you know, there are countries that we've talked a little bit about that are relatively stable democracies. There are countries that are potentially vulnerable to democratic backsliding or the rise of authoritarianism. I here I'm thinking about Venezuela and Cuba that seem to be just kind of stuck in authoritarian regimes. Yet there have been glimmers of potential. I don't want to say democratic opening, but the potential that we could begin to see something like that in both Venezuela and Cuba. And what I'm thinking about is, you know, Maduro had suggested that potentially there would be a relatively free and fair election and, in Cuba, take some ballot measures to the people and allow them to vote on things like expanding LGBTQ rights in Cuba. These are all glimmers of hope, but at the same time, Maduro has now pretty much made it clear that it's not going to be a free and fair election in Venezuela and we're not really seeing anything else happen in Cuba. So I'm wondering if there is any potential for the prospect of restoring democracy in these countries in the near future, to your mind.
Dr. McClintock:Yeah, I'd never say, never right.
Shawn:And.
Dr. McClintock:I often bring up the example of Peru in the year 2000, where Alberto Fujimori had become increasingly authoritarian, definitely skewed the 2000 election, but he'd been inaugurated and it looked like he was going to get away with it. But then there was a leak of a video of his spymaster bribing Congress people and there were massive protests and Fujimori feared indictment and he fled the country. So you never know, there can be unexpected shocks that get us back to democracy, but I would say at the moment Cuba is looking very grim, very, very grim. I mean looking very grim, very, very grim. I mean I agree with you that there were steps forward. The consultation on LGBTQ plus rights was very important, but, that said, in terms of actually allowing anything that was a real election, I mean in contrast to Venezuela. Basically, cuba's never had that in its whole entire history, virtually. And you know the ties with Russia, the ties with China are enough to keep this sort of small elite afloat. You know what we saw.
Dr. McClintock:As you probably know, there were these massive 2021 protests in Cuba and I was hopeful at the time. It was, you know, because the Cuban regime had you know there had always been quite a lot of legitimacy, because there were a lot of good things that had happened in Cuba and so there was legitimacy. But in 2021, when the regime was so repressive against the protests and continued to repress, it was kind of like. At that point Cuba said there's no hope, and the immigration from Cuba the last couple of years has just skyrocketed. I think it's four percent of the population the last two years, two percent of the population the two years before. So most cubans have been saying there's no hope. So, but again, never say never. You never know venezuela. No, at least the regime has felt like it's got to look like it's sort. It hasn't clamped down entirely, but it continues to say there is a strong history of elections in Venezuela.
Dr. McClintock:I think they're trying to support a larger number of people within the Maduro's coalition. There's a lot of big military in Venezuela that they have to keep on their side. I think it's something like there are 50 generals. Venezuela gets considerably more because it's got all these oil reserves. It's of more interest to China in particular. But no, you could certainly imagine a day where China says you guys aren't producing this oil anymore. It's just a basket case economically, and until you get things a little bit going, a little bit better, we're not going to support you. I mean, to a certain extent that happened. They'd given 60 billion back about 10 years ago and there's been nothing like that since. So you can imagine kind of geopolitical changes which would lead some of these Venezuelan insiders to.
Dr. McClintock:I think what they've been looking for is kind of a palatable opposition candidate. If you will Marina Machado, she was pretty far to the right in the opposition they're sort of looking for an opposition candidate who maybe wouldn't be so disturbing or something where there'd be sort of more like a negotiated okay, you guys can do this. Or at least, if there's a group of softliners within the Maduro regime, we're sort of saying, hey, maybe we can find a soft landing there. But as you said at the start, it's been looking grim. It's been looking grim, it's been very frustrating.
Shawn:I also want to talk about Argentina because I can't quite make it out. So they had the recent election and the winners the new president is far right economist Milley, and you know the winners the new president is far right economist Millet, and he he's had a lot of social and cultural rhetoric that continues into his presidency that suggests a rise of authoritarianism and economic related, and for the time being it just seems to kind of be a shit show, frankly. But I can't really get a pulse on what to expect from Argentina. What do you think?
Dr. McClintock:I think we're all waiting with bated breath to see how Millet's Malay's presidency will evolve. Obviously, his victory in the election was perhaps the biggest shock of 2023 for us now, latin Americanists, and the idea that a self-described anarcho-capitalist would win the Argentina election. I think everybody agreed that that was testimony to how devastatingly bad the Argentine economy has been over the last couple of years, in particular, under the leftist Peronist government, and the failures of kind of the center again talking once again about polarization in Latin American countries that the center-right had been in office prior to the Peronists but they hadn't managed to do much better. So this sense of okay, all these other political stripes have failed. Let's select this guy with a chainsaw who's going to get rid of these casts that have meant that a country that you know once upon a time had a per capita GDP similar to Australia is now got a 50% poverty rate. So it was tremendous demand, for you know someone who would. You know it was again. And we come back to this demagoguery point. I'm going to fix it. I know I can fix it and this is an appealing message. I don't know anybody who doesn't think that Argentina needs more market economics, no, that its subsidy regimes, its pension regime, all of these things were just out of whack Currency controls to make all of that work. I mean, it hadn't worked for 50 years and it wasn't going to be working next year. So I think almost all again, my friends and I, we brought agreement, but making that happen? How do you make that happen?
Dr. McClintock:I think we all worry that, you know, because, again, as we've been talking about with some of the other countries, malay is very, very far from a legislative majority. The Peronist Party remains strong in the country. They were still the runner-ups to the presidency. So how does Millais bring about? You know he can't. It's already clear that he's not going to be. The legislature will block some of his most radical reforms. And how is he going to respond to that? Is he going to respond by trying to become more authoritarian, which is going to lead to a backlash, gain more strikes and protests, which won't get the country anywhere. It's a very, very uncertain situation.
Dr. McClintock:One understands why Argentina would have opted for this radical model, but making that happen in a country like Argentina, where there's so much resistance for so many decades as well, with a strong pair in this party, as well as whether or not this is a good idea for Argentina Because, again, I think everyone would agree that Argentina needs more market economics. But would dollarization really be a good idea or not? That's a little more complicated. I mean he wanted to do away with the central bank. Be a good idea or not? That's a little more complicated. I mean he wanted to do away with the central bank. These are very, very radical measures that are far from the measures that a lot of orthodox market economists would think would be good for Argentina. So huge question marks here.
Shawn:Recognizing that the situation is always fluid and that countries are always in varying states of democratic resilience or democratic backsliding. But, given that, and recognizing that, are you generally hopeful for the region or pessimistic?
Dr. McClintock:Latin Americans themselves are so creative and thoughtful and I mean sometimes, in the direst of times, you think, oh, this is impossible and there's a solution, and there's no surprises. I mean I was talking about Peru in 2000. And everyone was thinking, oh, we're really in for exacerbation of these authoritarian tendencies and it was reversed. It was reversed and Peru entered into some 16 years of growth with inclusion. That it was terrific. And I think in quite a few of these countries I can see Guatemala under Revelo making considerable advances, I think Neboa and Ecuador very difficult circumstances, but he's trying hard.
Dr. McClintock:Uruguay is always a very bright spot and I think a lot of these presidents are trying to do the right thing and I don't think we should be too pessimistic at the same time that it would be wonderful if the Biden administration were to try to kind of really put resources into what it's talking about and to ponder Latin American requests for changes in our drug policy in particular, which is so damaging to so many of these countries. If the Biden administration would do more to think about climate change in these countries that didn't cause the problem but are suffering tremendously because of it. Thinking about wind and solar, there are areas in which the United States could really help, and I would love to see that. But don't underestimate Latin American resiliency and creativity and efforts to resolve tough problems.
Shawn:All right. Final question, and it's a quick one what's something interesting you've been reading, watching, listening to or doing lately?
Dr. McClintock:only get 1.5% or less than 1.5% of the vote from going on to what they refer to as the first round of the election, and I think that was again talking about creativity.
Dr. McClintock:I think that was a really good rule that at the moment is unique to Argentina, but I think that could help a lot.
Dr. McClintock:In a lot of the Latin American countries. We're seeing proliferations of candidates. Now people think, oh, I can get on social media and then I can get a following. But if voters have to choose among 20 candidates and this has been the case recently in a number of Latin American countries, including Costa Rica, which had always had a pretty stable system but if you can reduce the number of candidates in that kind of first round of the election to six or seven, I think voters could vote more strategically and we'd have a better chance of not getting a candidate at far right or far left extreme, not a demagogue, but someone who could pull the country together better. So that's what I've been working on most recently, and I don't think many people are aware of that particular electoral rule in Argentina and the possibility for it to be adopted elsewhere Maybe help Latin American voters to make the choices that they would like to like to get for the for their president.
Shawn:Dr McClintock, I really appreciate you taking the time to have this conversation and share your expertise. It's it's an important topic, it's an important region, so thank you.
Dr. McClintock:Thank you for your interest and thank you for the invitation. It was great to have this opportunity.
Shawn:Okay, I want to leave you with a few key takeaways from this discussion. First, it's clear that the region Latin America is at a critical inflection point. From the erosion of democratic norms in El Salvador and Mexico to the political upheaval in Peru and Brazil, to the glimmers of hope in places like Colombia and Chile and Guatemala, the forces of democracy and authoritarianism are locked in an existential struggle for the region's future. Second, this struggle's not happening in isolation. It's part of a broader global trend of democratic backsliding and authoritarian resurgence that we've seen from Russia and Turkey and Hungary to India and the Philippines and even here in the United States. If we consider this in the context of an interconnected world, what happens in Latin America has profound implications for the health of democracy everywhere.
Shawn:Finally, perhaps most importantly, we in the United States have a vital role to play in supporting democracy and countering authoritarianism in our own hemisphere.
Shawn:And I get it, we're kind of fighting for our own democratic survival at home this year.
Shawn:But for too long we've taken our relationships with our southern neighbors for granted and we've paid a price in terms of diminished influence and missed opportunities for partnerships.
Shawn:So, as Dr McClintock said, it's not too late to change course by making Latin America a top foreign policy priority, by investing in the kind of sustainable developments that enables democracy to thrive, and by standing in solidarity with those on the front lines of the fight for freedom and human rights, we can help shape a future in which the Western Hemisphere is a beacon of democratic values and a force for good in the world. So you're forgiven if you haven't been paying attention to what's happening in Latin America, but I encourage you to stay engaged, follow the news, support organizations working to strengthen democratic institutions and let your elected officials know that you care about the fate of democracy in our shared neighborhood, because, ultimately, the struggle for democracy in Latin America is not separate from our own struggle here at home. It's part of the same fight, the eternal fight to build societies that are free, fair and just, and it's a fight that we can't afford to sit out. All right, check back soon for another episode of Deep Dive Chat soon, folks, you.